The Housing We Need for the Future We Want: The case for activating Europe's existing building stock

This green paper, dated 3 July 2026, is authored by BPIE (Building Performance Institute Europe), The VELUX Group, No Objectives, RISE Lab and Artelia. It presents a technical and theoretical analysis of the potential of better use of Europe's existing building stock, including renovation, reuse of vacant homes and conversion of unused buildings into housing.

The paper frames Europe's challenges as four linked crises:

• The EU needs more than 2 million additional dwellings per year, around one third more than is currently built.
• Buildings account for 40% of EU final energy use and 36% of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, with 75% of the existing stock energy inefficient.
• A third of Europeans are exposed to unhealthy indoor climate conditions.
• 20% of existing dwellings are underoccupied and 16.8% are overcrowded.

The paper argues that efficiency and sufficiency should be treated together. It states that the roughly 1% of stock added each year generates 18% of annual building stock emissions in the EU, while the remaining 99% of buildings account for around 82%. It also notes that efficiency gains can be offset by rebound effects such as larger dwellings.

The nine better-use measures are grouped into three families: Renovate (Reshape, Refine, Reclaim, Repurpose, Resize), Extend (Attic Conversion, Build Up, Build Out) and Build New (Compact New Build). The calculations use a dataset of over 10,000 building archetypes, EN 15978 and a 50-year reference study period. Operational emissions are assumed at 26 kgCO₂eq/m²/year for the existing stock and 5 kgCO₂eq/m²/year for new low-carbon buildings.

• At full potential, 50 to 107 million additional dwellings could be created, from 4 to 9 billion m² of floor area, housing 115 to 246 million people.
• Better use could avoid 3.9 to 19 billion tonnes of CO₂eq over 50 years, with about 75% of the potential coming from renovation measures.
• Between 5.8 and 13 gigatonnes of material use could be avoided.
• Reshaping requires roughly five times less material than compact new construction, with a carbon payback of around 3 to 7 years when combined with energy efficiency.
• Energy renovation linked to these measures could reduce operational energy demand by 25 to 75%.

The paper proposes an Impact Framework that ranks measures by emissions reduction and material intensity. It advises to renovate first, then extend where renovation cannot meet demand, and to build new only as a last resort, favouring compact and biobased construction.

The paper links poor housing to health costs. It cites an estimated 2.2 million asthma cases in Europe attributable to indoor dampness, more than 38,000 excess winter deaths per year across eleven countries, and €194 billion per year in costs for EU economies. It states that housing costs exceed 40% of disposable income for nearly 10% of EU urban households.

The paper describes itself as a call for dialogue between policymakers, industry, researchers, financial institutions and civil society. It states that implementation pathways, costs, biodiversity impacts and distributional effects require further work. Its main finding is that the existing building stock is one of Europe's greatest assets.