Zu den Ursachen der Misere am Wohnungsmarkt

The document titled "Zu den Ursachen der Misere am Wohnungsmarkt" is published by empirica ag and authored by Prof. Dr. Harald Simons. It explores the paradox of housing shortages in Germany, particularly in major cities, despite an increase in housing stock since 2011 that has outpaced population growth.

The paper reveals that from 2011 to 2024, the number of available rental units increased, yet the demand significantly outstripped the supply of market-relevant housing. The overall housing supply improved, with a rise in the number of available apartments per capita, yet this did not alleviate the rental market's challenges. The study emphasizes that the conventional comparison of housing supply and household demand is insufficient to explain the ongoing crisis.

A critical finding is that only 10-12% of the total housing stock is relevant to the rental market, as it includes only those units that are actively available for rent. The demand from households looking for new apartments often exceeds this supply, especially in tense markets, leading to rising rents and extended search times for prospective tenants. The document illustrates that many rental contracts from previous years have substantial economic value, making tenants reluctant to vacate their units even when they may need to move due to changing life circumstances.

The economic implications of maintaining old rental contracts are significant. For instance, terminating a long-standing lease can lead to substantial financial losses, sometimes amounting to tens of thousands of euros. This financial burden causes tenants to "hoard" their apartments, further constraining the market and exacerbating the shortage issue.

The paper also discusses unrealized demand, where households actively searching for new accommodation while already living in a rental unit contribute to market pressures. For instance, families needing larger spaces due to new children or job relocations often find themselves in a situation where they cannot afford to let go of their current, cheaper apartments, thereby increasing competition for available units. This phenomenon creates a feedback loop, where the growing demand leads to heightened concern about finding suitable housing, further decreasing the likelihood of tenants vacating their apartments.

Despite an increase in housing stock, rental prices have surged, with average rents in Germany rising by 62% from 2011 to 2024. The report indicates that while the number of households has also increased, the growth in housing supply has not been sufficient to meet the heightened demand, demonstrating a complex relationship between population dynamics and housing availability.

The central conclusion of the paper is that housing shortages can persist even when sufficient units exist. Factors such as hoarding and cumulative unrealized demand create an artificial scarcity. The study advocates for increasing residential mobility and enhancing incentives to make existing housing stock market-relevant again as integral steps toward alleviating the housing crisis, alongside continued new construction to address both current and future demands.