Zu den Ursachen der Misere am Wohnungsmarkt

The resource "Zu den Ursachen der Misere am Wohnungsmarkt" is published by empirica ag and authored by Prof. Dr. Harald Simons. This paper investigates the paradox of housing shortages in Germany, particularly in major cities, despite an increase in the housing stock since 2011 that has outpaced population and household growth. It emphasizes that while rental prices have surged from 2011 to 2024, the availability of housing per capita has slightly improved.

A central finding of the paper is that simply comparing the number of available apartments and households is analytically insufficient. Households can only exist if they already occupy a residence, meaning that the equation "apartments = households" does not explain shortages. The document highlights the importance of distinguishing between the total housing stock and the market-relevant supply and demand. The market-relevant demand consists of only those households actively searching for apartments, which constitutes about 10-12% of the total housing stock, influencing the rental market dynamics.

The paper explains that in tense housing markets, the market-relevant demand often exceeds the supply, leading to rising rental prices and extended search times. This situation is exacerbated by the phenomenon of housing hoarding, where tenants do not vacate their apartments due to economic concerns related to their rent contracts, which have become valuable assets compared to current market rates. As a result, many households continue to search for new apartments while residing in their current ones, contributing to unrealized demand that is not statistically captured.

The paper outlines that from 2011 to 2024, Germany's population increased significantly, leading to heightened demand for housing. Despite a considerable construction boom, which saw the completion of over 3.1 million new apartments, the demand continued to rise, creating a perception of scarcity. This contradiction arises from the fact that while the number of apartments grew faster than the population, the market dynamics led to increased prices and challenges in finding suitable housing.

An important aspect discussed is the shrinking average household size, which has resulted in a higher demand for housing compared to the population growth. From 2011 to 2024, the number of households increased by 8.3%, while the number of apartments rose by only 7.7%. The document suggests that a simplistic comparison of housing stock and households fails to account for the complexities of housing demand, particularly the unreleased demand from households that currently occupy unsuitable accommodations.

The findings emphasize that a housing shortage can exist even with a sufficient number of apartments. Factors such as housing hoarding and cumulative unrealized demand can create a "shortage from nothing." To address this issue, the paper advocates for increased market fluidity and incentives to make existing housing stock more relevant to current market needs, alongside continued new construction to alleviate pressures in housing markets.

In conclusion, the research provides a comprehensive analysis of the housing market crisis in Germany, highlighting the need for nuanced understanding and policy interventions to effectively address the challenges of sustainability in housing. The paper calls for a focus not only on new construction but also on fostering movement within the existing housing stock to meet the evolving needs of households.