Onderzoek: Haagse woningmarkt knelt vooral in betaalbare segmenten

The research, commissioned by Stadszaken and authored by ABF Research, investigates the current strain on the affordable housing segment in The Hague. The study combines data from municipal sources, the WoON 2024 survey, and supplementary analyses from CBS‑microdata, Kadaster, SVH and Pararius. Its primary aim is to quantify shortages, assess success rates in the social‑rental market and identify demographic groups most affected by the lack of affordable homes.

In the Haaglanden region, the housing deficit amounts to 6.7 % of the existing stock, well above the national average of 4.8 %. To reach the policy target of a 2 % shortage, roughly 25 500 additional dwellings would be required. The deficit is concentrated in the low‑ and middle‑income segments, with young households (under 35 years), starters and those transitioning from rental to ownership experiencing the greatest pressure.

The overall success rate for obtaining a social‑rental unit fell from 13 % in 2023 to 10.4 % in 2024. For applicants within the advertised supply the success rate is even lower at 5.8 %. The most vulnerable groups – households aged 23‑54 years and low‑income families – show a markedly weaker position in the market.

The private‑ownership market is also moving out of reach for many residents. In 2025, only 12 % of existing homes were sold below €250 000, while the average transaction price hovered around €485 000. Rental listings on platforms such as Pararius have declined, yet average asking rents have risen to €2 384 per month, with sub‑€1 500 offers becoming scarce.

Between 2020 and 2024, 9 950 new‑build units were completed in The Hague; 7 675 of these were occupied and included in the analysis. Over 60 % of new homes were taken by existing residents, and more than half of the households were under 35 years old, particularly in the middle‑rental segment. Corporate new‑build housing provides the most additional supply for lower‑income groups, but the reduction of social corporate housing threatens to worsen the situation for urgent seekers.

The study notes that turnover from existing corporate stock may decrease, as fewer units become available for onward rent. Moreover, 47 % of middle‑rental homes are taken up by households moving into the city from elsewhere, highlighting the importance of mobility in alleviating pressure on affordable units.

For a pan‑European audience focused on sustainability, the findings underscore the link between affordable housing and broader climate goals. High‑density, energy‑efficient construction in the affordable segment can reduce carbon footprints while addressing social equity. The shortage of low‑cost, sustainable dwellings in The Hague mirrors challenges in many European cities, suggesting a need for coordinated policy measures that combine increased supply, rent‑control mechanisms and incentives for green retrofits in the social‑rental sector.