The document titled "Developments and Forecasts on Continuing Urbanisation" is published by the European Commission and provides an in-depth analysis of global urbanisation trends, with a focus on their implications for sustainable housing in Europe.
Urbanisation Trends
Urbanisation is accelerating globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of people living in urban areas. The recently adopted Degree of Urbanisation reveals that in 2015, approximately 76.5% of the global population lived in urban areas, an increase from 54% reported by the UN. This rapid urban growth has led to a dramatic increase in the number of urban centres, which have almost doubled from over 6,900 in 1975 to more than 13,100 in 2015. Urban populations have grown faster than rural ones, with projections suggesting that by 2050, 68% of the world’s population will inhabit cities, nearly doubling from 4.2 billion in 2018.
Urbanisation in Europe
In Europe, urbanisation is expected to reach approximately 83.7% by 2050. However, this growth is not uniform; while some cities experience population growth, others may see declines. The migration to urban areas is contributing to agricultural land abandonment, which is expected to increase significantly. The built-up areas in the EU are projected to expand by over 3% between 2015 and 2030, with Italy, Germany, and Poland anticipated to experience the largest increases.
Housing Challenges
The document highlights alarming trends regarding housing affordability in urban areas. In the EU, around 82 million citizens spend more than 40% of their disposable income on housing. Major cities like Amsterdam have seen property prices soar, with a reported 45% increase between 2016 and 2018. If current trends continue, the percentage of affordable housing in Amsterdam could decline from 61% in 2015 to 43% in 2025. The rise of foreign and corporate investments in residential properties has altered ownership patterns, raising concerns about access to adequate housing for local residents.
Mobility and Services
Urban congestion is on the rise, costing Europe an estimated 2% of GDP due to traffic delays. The future of urban mobility is expected to shift significantly as new technologies and services emerge. As cities embrace Mobility as a Service (MaaS), private vehicle ownership is projected to decline, allowing for more sustainable transport options.
Environmental Concerns
As urban populations increase, so does the environmental burden. Cities are responsible for about 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions and generate over 720 billion tons of waste annually. The document underscores the urgent need for better waste management and recycling solutions to mitigate the negative impacts on public health and the environment. Furthermore, cities are facing increased vulnerability to climate change, with many urban areas experiencing severe air quality issues and rising temperatures.
Inequalities and Social Segregation
Urban areas are often characterized by stark inequalities. In 2017, 112 million EU inhabitants were at risk of poverty or social exclusion, with many living in cities. The document emphasizes that informal settlements, which are often located in degraded areas, are particularly vulnerable to climate change and lack the resources to adapt.
In conclusion, the European Commission's report provides a comprehensive overview of ongoing urbanisation trends and their implications, emphasizing the critical need for sustainable housing solutions to address the challenges posed by rapid urban growth in Europe.