Developments and Forecasts on Continuing Urbanisation

Published by the Competence Centre on Foresight from the European Commission, this document outlines developments and forecasts regarding continuing urbanisation. With urbanisation being a pressing global issue, the publication dives into extensive data about the trends and implications of urban growth, particularly in Europe and worldwide.

Urbanisation is more prevalent than previously estimated, with new definitions indicating that 76.5% of the global population lived in urban areas as of 2015, a significant increase from earlier reports. Urban centres have nearly doubled in number from over 6,900 in 1975 to more than 13,100 in 2015. The urban population is projected to continue growing, potentially reaching 68% by 2050 and 85% by 2100, with the urban population increasing from less than 1 billion in 1950 to 9 billion by 2100.

Urbanisation rates differ significantly, with developing regions such as Africa experiencing rapid growth. Over the past 25 years, urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa have more than doubled. In contrast, some areas in North America and Europe have seen declines in urban populations. About 45% of urban dwellers live in settlements with fewer than 250,000 inhabitants, highlighting that growth is not just concentrated in mega cities.

The built-up area of cities has expanded considerably, growing by an area equivalent to Romania in the last 25 years. Urban areas hosted around 5.6 billion people in 2015, and their built-up footprint exceeded half a million km². However, in Europe and North America, built-up areas are increasing at a rate faster than population growth, leading to more land consumption for new residents.

In Europe, housing prices have sharply increased in many sought-after cities, threatening affordability as prices rise faster than income. Approximately 82 million EU citizens spend over 40% of their disposable income on housing, with social housing waiting lists reaching record highs. The real estate market has seen significant booms, notably in Amsterdam, where property prices surged by 45% from 2016 to 2018.

Urban congestion is on the rise, costing Europe about 2% of GDP due to traffic delays. Future mobility solutions are expected to evolve, with a likely decrease in private vehicle ownership as Mobility as a Service (MaaS) gains prominence. In cities with higher populations, residents have easier access to specialized services, which are economically viable only in larger urban areas.

Cities generate about 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions and produce over 720 billion tons of waste annually. Most waste still ends up in landfills, contributing to environmental degradation. Furthermore, urban areas face significant pressure in providing essential services like water, energy, and food security, necessitating urgent solutions for sustainable waste management and resource consumption.

Urban areas often showcase stark inequalities, with 112 million EU inhabitants at risk of poverty or social exclusion, many residing in cities. Health disparities are also evident, as living conditions can significantly impact well-being. Mental health issues may be exacerbated by urban environments, highlighting the need for attention to these challenges as cities continue to grow.

The publication underscores the complex dynamics of urbanisation, presenting crucial data for understanding the implications for housing, urban planning, and sustainability. As cities continue to evolve, these insights will be vital for fostering sustainable urban environments.