Developments and Forecasts on Continuing Urbanisation

This document, published by the Competence Centre on Foresight within the European Commission, addresses the ongoing trends and future forecasts related to urbanization across Europe and beyond. It highlights the implications of urban growth for sustainable housing and living conditions, providing valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders in the housing sector.

Urbanization is occurring at an unprecedented rate globally. The latest estimates suggest that 76.5% of the world's population lived in urban areas as of 2015, a significant increase from previous assessments. Urban centers have nearly doubled in number since 1975, growing from over 6,900 to more than 13,100. The global urban population is projected to reach 68% by 2050, nearly doubling from 4.2 billion in 2018 to 9 billion by 2100.

This rapid urbanization is particularly pronounced in developing regions, with Africa expected to be the fastest urbanizing region. In contrast, many areas in North America and Europe are experiencing population declines.

In Europe, the urbanization rate is anticipated to rise to approximately 83.7% by 2050. While the overall population in European Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) is projected to increase by 4% by 2050, nearly half of these areas may experience declines in population. This demographic shift is driving agricultural land abandonment, with an expected net loss of 4.2 million hectares of farmland between 2015 and 2030.

Additionally, built-up areas in the EU are expected to expand by over 3% during this period, with Italy, Germany, and Poland predicted to see the largest increases.

The surge in urbanization is contributing to sharp increases in housing prices across many European cities, threatening affordability and accessibility. Around 82 million EU citizens are spending more than 40% of their disposable income on housing. Major cities such as Amsterdam, Paris, and London are particularly affected, with surveys indicating a growing difficulty in finding affordable housing.

The prevalence of short-term rental platforms is exacerbating these issues, driving property prices higher and negatively impacting local living conditions. Without intervention, the share of affordable housing in Amsterdam is projected to decrease from 61% in 2015 to 43% in 2025.

Urban areas are responsible for approximately 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions and generate over 720 billion tons of waste annually. This poses significant environmental challenges, particularly in the Global South, where waste production has escalated dramatically since the 1980s.

Cities also face increasing pressure on resources, including water and energy, making sustainable urban development essential. The health implications of urban air quality are severe, with over 80% of urban residents exposed to pollution levels exceeding World Health Organization guidelines.

Despite the high standards of living in many urban areas, extreme poverty and social exclusion remain prevalent. In 2017, 112 million EU inhabitants faced risks of poverty or social exclusion, highlighting the disparities in wealth and access to resources.

Informal settlements are particularly vulnerable, often situated in degraded areas with limited resources to adapt to climate change and other urban challenges. Addressing these inequalities is crucial for creating sustainable and inclusive cities.

The document underscores the urgent need for sustainable housing solutions in the face of continuing urbanization. It highlights the interconnected challenges of housing affordability, environmental sustainability, and social equity, calling for coordinated efforts among stakeholders to create resilient urban environments for future generations.