Resource context and source
This resource is a foresight briefing published by the Competence Centre on Foresight of the European Commission. It compiles data and references on continuing urbanisation, including global trends and specific projections for Europe. The author is not named in the document.
Scale and trajectory of global urbanisation
Using the “Degree of Urbanisation” methodology, the share of the world population living in urban areas is estimated at 76.5% in 2015 (about 5.6 billion people), higher than the 54% reported under older UN definitions. Under the same approach, urban centres increased from more than 6,900 in 1975 to more than 13,100 in 2015. Based on widely used projections, the global urban share is expected to rise to around 68% by 2050 and up to about 85% by 2100, with the urban population growing from under 1 billion in 1950 to around 9 billion by 2100.
Where growth happens: regions and city sizes
Urbanisation rates differ by region. Africa is described as the fastest-urbanising region, with urban populations more than doubling across much of sub-Saharan Africa over the last 25 years. By contrast, parts of North America and Europe have experienced declines in urban population in some areas. Urban growth is not only concentrated in megacities: about 45% of the world’s urban residents live in settlements of fewer than 250,000 inhabitants, and almost 60% live in settlements below 1 million.
Urban land take and built-up expansion
The resource highlights that cities’ built-up areas have expanded substantially. Over the last 25 years, cities globally grew by an area comparable to Romania, and around 60% of cities increased the amount of land consumed per new resident. In 2015, urban areas hosted about 5.6 billion people and the built-up footprint exceeded half a million km² (around a 20% increase since 2000). Europe and Northern America are noted as regions where built-up areas have been growing faster than population, implying higher land consumption per additional resident—an important issue for sustainable housing and compact-city strategies. 🇪🇺 European outlook: urbanisation and land-use change For Europe, the briefing cites an expected urbanisation level of about 83.7% by 2050. It also points to uneven demographic trajectories within European functional urban areas, with projections indicating that while the total population of such areas may increase on average by about 4% by 2050, almost half could lose population and around 10% of cities may lose more than a quarter of their population between 2015 and 2050. Urbanisation is linked to land-use shifts, including agricultural land abandonment (4.2 million hectares net over 2015–2030, reaching 5.6 million hectares abandoned by 2030). Built-up areas are projected to expand by more than 3% between 2015 and 2030, reaching about 7% of EU territory by 2030; France, Germany, and Italy are cited as having the largest absolute built-up areas.
Housing affordability and market pressures
The document connects urbanisation dynamics to housing affordability challenges in Europe. It reports sharp housing price increases in many in-demand cities, with prices rising faster than earnings and limited housing availability. Of roughly 220 million EU households, around 82 million people are cited as spending more than 40% of disposable income on housing, and social housing waiting lists are described as being at record highs. The text gives Amsterdam as an example, where property prices increased by 45% between 2016 and 2018, and a scenario is cited in which the share of affordable housing could decline from 61% (2015) to 43% (2025) without measures.
Environmental footprint, health, and social inclusion
Cities are described as producing about 70% of global greenhouse-gas emissions and facing major waste-management challenges; global urban waste generation is cited as over 720 billion tons annually, with more than 70% still going to landfill or dumps. The resource also underlines social and health dimensions relevant to inclusive, sustainable housing: in 2017, 112 million EU inhabitants were at risk of poverty or social exclusion (22% of the population), with 47 million living in cities, and air quality exposure is highlighted for both global and EU urban populations. Overall, the briefing positions urbanisation as a key driver shaping housing demand, land use, affordability, and sustainability challenges across Europe.