Housing for millions without new buildings? An analysis of the theoretical housing potential of under-occupied dwellings in the European building stock

The document titled "Housing for millions without new buildings? An analysis of the theoretical housing potential of under-occupied dwellings in the European building stock" was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters by IOP Publishing. The authors include Jonas Lage, Luisa Cordroch, Johannes Thema, Florin Vondung, and David Schöpf, who are affiliated with various academic institutions in Germany. The paper addresses the pressing issue of housing shortages in Europe and proposes an innovative approach to utilize under-occupied dwellings to meet housing demands without the need for new construction.

The article highlights that the conventional response to housing shortages is to build new units, which raises environmental concerns regarding carbon emissions and resource consumption. The authors analyze the potential of under-occupied dwellings within the existing European building stock, estimating a theoretical housing potential of approximately 152 million rooms across the EU. This could potentially provide housing for up to 100 million people or about 23% of the EU population. The research leverages occupancy regulations from Swiss housing cooperatives, which require a minimum number of residents based on the number of rooms. By applying similar criteria across EU member states, the authors demonstrate that significant housing potential exists in various regions, including urban, suburban, and rural areas.

To assess the theoretical potential of under-occupied rooms, the authors employed data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). They defined under-occupancy based on household size relative to the number of rooms available, identifying that one-person and two-person households represent the largest share of under-occupied rooms. The data reveals that under-occupancy has risen over recent years, with the proportion of under-occupied households reaching 45% as of 2022. The study also indicates that the potential for converting under-occupied spaces into smaller, more desirable living arrangements, such as three-room apartments, is significant.

The analysis shows that countries with a higher proportion of smaller flats experience lower levels of under-occupancy. The potential for reconfiguring existing housing stock varies across EU member states, with significant opportunities identified in both owner-occupied and rented dwellings. Furthermore, the paper notes that a large portion of under-occupied rooms is located in owner-occupied homes, where the potential for increased occupancy is greater compared to rented properties. The findings suggest that addressing under-occupancy could help alleviate housing shortages, particularly in growing metropolitan areas while balancing ecological concerns.

The authors conclude that addressing the under-occupancy of existing dwellings is crucial for resolving social and environmental issues in the housing market. They advocate for housing policies that promote affordable and attractive options for smaller households and older individuals, thereby freeing up larger units for families. The research underscores the need for political framework changes to enable the efficient use of existing housing stock. By learning from successful occupancy policies implemented in Switzerland, the potential for utilizing under-occupied spaces could be considerably enhanced, contributing to sustainable urban living and resource conservation across Europe.