Centripetal Cities: A critique of supply-side urban development

Centripetal Cities: A Critique of Supply-Side Urban Development is a scholarly report published by the University of Sheffield, authored by Richard Goulding, Adam Leaver, and Jonathan Silver. The document critiques the prevailing supply-side urban development model in the UK, particularly focusing on Manchester as a case study.

The report highlights the stark interregional disparities in the UK, with Manchester often cited as a success story of urban transformation. However, despite significant investment and development in the city center, the benefits have not been evenly distributed. The authors argue that the property-led, city-first development model has resulted in increased productivity but has failed to translate into improved wages or living conditions for the broader population.

Data shows that while Manchester's city center has experienced notable population growth—20% from 1981 to 2021—many surrounding areas have lagged behind, with only 2.3% growth during the same period. The economically active population in Manchester grew by 17.6%, contrasting sharply with the 2.3% average across Greater Manchester, indicating a centralization of economic opportunities that marginalizes outer areas.

The report illustrates the challenges posed by rising housing costs in Manchester, where 30.3% of households are in private rental situations, significantly higher than in outlying areas. The disparity in housing costs exacerbates inequalities, with the average monthly rent for a two-bedroom property in Manchester reaching £1,200, compared to £724 in surrounding areas like Rochdale. Consequently, after housing costs, disposable incomes in Manchester are often lower than in neighboring towns.

The authors find that Manchester’s urban development strategy has led to a failure in capturing public value from property developments. Between 2012 and 2020, just 471 affordable housing units were approved, a mere 1% of total residential developments. This lack of affordable housing, coupled with minimal contributions from developers (only £36.3 million in Section 106 payments), has resulted in a net loss of social housing and increased displacement pressures in inner-city neighborhoods.

The report raises critical questions about whether the property-led model facilitates genuine investment or primarily serves to extract value from the city. The growth of global investors and the high density of build-to-rent (BTR) projects has led to rental profits being siphoned off into tax havens, thus limiting local economic benefits. An estimated £158 million in rental income is projected to flow out of Manchester annually, further entrenching inequalities.

State-led gentrification efforts have significantly altered Manchester's landscape, resulting in the demolition of thousands of council homes and the transformation of neighborhoods like Ancoats and Miles Platting. These areas, once home to working-class communities, are increasingly unaffordable due to rising rents driven by new developments aimed at attracting affluent tenants.

The critique of the centripetal city model calls for a reassessment of urban development strategies, advocating for models that prioritize community wealth-building and sustainability. The authors suggest that focusing solely on attracting investment overlooks pressing social issues, including the housing crisis and long-term sustainability challenges. Their findings advocate for a shift towards more equitable urban development practices that embed benefits within local communities rather than extracting them.